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Seminar: 10/21 - Reid Hastie, University of Chicago

11:00 to 12:30 PM      at:  5101 Tolman Hall

The Answer to the Riddle of Induction

This talk is a discussion of two-three lines of behavioral research that illustrate the theme of identifying and then using "mental representations" to understand judgments under uncertainty. The talk concludes with a report of recent studies of the role of explanations (or beliefs about what is causing what) in singular projection judgments: Given you observe a novel attribute in one individual case, to which other cases to you project that attribute? (E.g., One of your friends comes down with a cold, who else do you think will get the cold? Your cell phone malfunctions, which other cell phones do you think will also malfunction?)